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Etymology
Shortened version of, which is an idiom of agricultural origin (i.e. expressing disbelief that on a difficult winter a donkey can survive till May when clover will have sprouted again). Through loss of etymological transparency, the phrase acquired its modern form probably in the 20th c. The shortened forms and  are the most common today.

The older phrase is of origin, as it is already recorded by Levinus Warner (mid-17th c.). A calque of this phrase has also been inherited to Modern Turkish as  or more rarely, usually shortened to.

Phrase

 * 1)  that'll be the day, that'll be the frosty Friday